Resources

RESOURCES


RESOURCES: PAPERS & PRESENTATIONS

Author : Tadayuki Hara
School/Work Place : Cornell University, USA
Contact : th94@cornell.edu
Year : 2005

The risk management of tourism as an industry involves quantification of unprecedented, unlikely but possible negative exogenous event to the region. The objective of this paper is to discuss further on an alternative quantitative method to forecast immediate short term impacts given an unprecedented negative shock to a regional economy, including tourism related sectors. While the negative shock of unprecedented scale will prevent popular multivariate/time series based modeling from making reasonable short-term forecasting, there seems to be a promising validity of using a deterministic model of an input-output/social accounting matrix, which depicts the annual flow of and interdependency of industrial sectors in the economy. While the idea has been presented to study the total impact of unprecedented event of terrorism, the possibility of applying this framework over other negative events of natural disasters, such as hurricane, earthquake, tsunami, and outbreak of contagious diseases such as SARS, Bird-flu, West-Nile virus may remain intriguing given the unsolved limitations of mainstream forecasting methods confronted with unprecedented negative shocks. Extra discussion on the relative impact of a negative shock to a small economy, such as islands nations and small developing nations will be explored.


List of Articles
No. Subject Views Datesort
4 Think Tank XIII Sustainable Tourism in Kerala - Chances for Local Comm... file 9117 Nov 06, 2013

The Indian state Kerala is positioned by Kerala Tourism as a sustainable tourism destination for domestic and foreign markets (cf. Jean-Francois 2011). Indeed sustainable tourism projects take place and are conducted either by NGOs like Kaba...

Author: Tatjana Thimm 

Year: 2013 

3 Think Tank XI Identifying Critical Issues in Designing Educational T... file 3570 Oct 14, 2013

Education is seen as an important way to contribute to development. The World Bank finances educational projects with large amounts of money every year because it is convinced that improving education can help alleviate poverty by raising i...

Author: Kerstin Freudenthaler & Anja Hergesell 

Year: 2011 

2 Think Tank V An Economic Explanation of the Net Benefits of Tourism... file 2767 Oct 13, 2013

International tourism is increasingly viewed as one of the best opportunities for a sustainable economic and social development of developing countries. There is also an increasing concern from public policy makers as to whether mass tourism...

Author: Mondher Sahli & Jean-Jacques Nowak 

Year: 2005 

» Think Tank V Discussion on Extended Validity of an Alternative Fram... file 209371 Oct 13, 2013

The risk management of tourism as an industry involves quantification of unprecedented, unlikely but possible negative exogenous event to the region. The objective of this paper is to discuss further on an alternative quantitative method to ...

Author: Tadayuki Hara 

Year: 2005 

AAA