The risk management of tourism as an industry involves quantification of unprecedented, unlikely but possible negative exogenous event to the region. The objective of this paper is to discuss further on an alternative quantitative method to forecast immediate short term impacts given an unprecedented negative shock to a regional economy, including tourism related sectors. While the negative shock of unprecedented scale will prevent popular multivariate/time series based modeling from making reasonable short-term forecasting, there seems to be a promising validity of using a deterministic model of an input-output/social accounting matrix, which depicts the annual flow of and interdependency of industrial sectors in the economy. While the idea has been presented to study the total impact of unprecedented event of terrorism, the possibility of applying this framework over other negative events of natural disasters, such as hurricane, earthquake, tsunami, and outbreak of contagious diseases such as SARS, Bird-flu, West-Nile virus may remain intriguing given the unsolved limitations of mainstream forecasting methods confronted with unprecedented negative shocks. Extra discussion on the relative impact of a negative shock to a small economy, such as islands nations and small developing nations will be explored.